A Peak at the Future
The topic of running out of oil never really left my radar screen since listening to Edgar Winter's White Trash and Tower of Power address the issue somewhat lopsidedly. Now comes Harper's Magazine to renew my interest, so I google "peak oil" and find...well a lot commentary. Much more than I expected, in fact, from both sides of the issue. I thought everyone was still arguing about global warming now that Gore put out his film; WRONG AGAIN!
Now unless you're a geologist, you can't really have an informed opinion on this, and even if you ARE a geologist, you've got some pretty questionable data to work with. That may keep some geologist not in the employ of Exxon, et alia from saying much, but it doesn't keep the sides down, and their arguments amount to this:
Peak Oiler: We're running out of oil, on which our civilization depends, and when it runs out, the sh*t is going to hit the fan.
Conservative Capitalist: Oh yeah? How do you know? We might have LOTS of oil available; we just need to figure out better ways to get it out of the ground and use it more efficiently.
If the PO is right, it's time to buy a nuclear submarine and stock it well. If the CC is right, it's business as usual with a little more government funding for renewables and LOTS more tax credits for oil companies.
The PO's have added to their argument that global instability resulting from dependence on oil has gotten worse and will likely continue to do so (not that that's news to anyone); the CC's have added a nod to conservation, as long as it doesn't rock the oil-driven capitalist juggernaut of global trade. I want to assume that BOTH sides are partly right: We are running out oil, and yes, we will adapt; there will be global instability and resource wars, and yes, they will suck. What else can be safely predicted?
I don't make predictions unless I feel that my information is good, and in this case, beyond knowing how much oil is in the ground and how fast it will run out, it actually isn't too bad; one can at least read the trends. Global conflict over resources (including oil; water is becoming scarce, too) will certainly increase, although how quickly is hard to say. The UN and the West have lost much of their moral authority in a world leaning toward religious fundamentalism. The West has also been much more dependent oil for longer than anyone, but has now been joined by China and India. Ideological confrontations have increased as well among the Great Powers, led by the Megapower, the USA.
Probably the safest prediction isn't too helpful. Global warming, whether caused or exacerbated by human activity or not, will lead to higher seas and a more violent climate. There may be a switch in the currents of the seas that keep temperate zones temperate, so that Europe once again undergoes an ice age. Desertification will certainly spread. But I don't believe in any apocalyptic outcomes (and not just because the apocalypse has always failed to show up; the world has to end SOMETIME). Humanity will adapt to the change in resource supply in fits and starts, just as it has in the past. The vast numbers of humans on the planet, with their various cultural adaptations will assure that at least some of humanity's cultures will survive.
For selfish reasons, I'm betting on good 'ole godless, secular Europe to lead us into this new and troubled age, but I have practical reasons for doing so, too. For while you just can't beat the Europeans for showing you a good time, there's nothing like rationality and science to get you through a tough spot, and the Europeans have always had the market cornered on rationality since WWII ended. The EU may be dull, and to outsiders pointless and silly, but it is nothing if not a rational response to the world's problems. Also, Europe will be less likely to blame disasters on divine intervention and think that they deserve the divine onslaughts. I'm counting on the Dutch to do their part to show the rest of the West how to keep out the rising waters -- they have the experience, after all -- and I'm counting on the English to stay calm, because, well, they almost always do. The Italians and the French and the Germans may bicker and quibble, but I expect they'll come through somehow (with the help of the Scandinavians to kick them in the ass when the glaciers move north far enough -- just like they did during the last global warming episode -- remember the Vikings?).
In the US, I expect more crazed millenial movements and folks wearing tinfoil hats to keep out the deadly rays. Of these, I expect the Mormons will survive, perhaps because they have the institutional will combined with pure nutcase fantasy religions to manage it. (Pace, Utah, but Joe Smith was cracked). Or perhaps just the Mormons will take over the US completely, just to spite the likes of atheist rationalists like myself (::shivers::).
China, as it always does, will carry on its ancient traditions at the expense of anything. Expect more cultural hunkering down and centralization.
Japan will disappear. Sorry; I was born after 1956, so I've always liked them. Good cartoons, too. The Ainu will learn to swim and take over what little remains of the archipelago in the Sea of Japan.
On the other hand, trends sometimes take a left turn; maybe the US, Russia, China, Iran, Europe, Canada, Venezuela, Africa and all the rest of the oil-producing and oil-consuming nations will all learn to get along -- just like the Arabs and Jews -- right!
Most likely to thrive in an oil-free tomorrow are those cultures that just happen to be in the right places for the wrong times. They won't be ready for the future, but the future will be theirs regardless. Based on precedent, I believe primitive peoples in remote areas will be just as successful in the post-Peak era as anyone else, if not more so.
So take heart. Even if Tower of Power were right: "there's only so much oil in the ground"--there's also whole lotta people on the surface! Donna Summer's music may not suvive, but something of humanity will. Even if it's the Mormon Tabernacle Choir.
Now unless you're a geologist, you can't really have an informed opinion on this, and even if you ARE a geologist, you've got some pretty questionable data to work with. That may keep some geologist not in the employ of Exxon, et alia from saying much, but it doesn't keep the sides down, and their arguments amount to this:
Peak Oiler: We're running out of oil, on which our civilization depends, and when it runs out, the sh*t is going to hit the fan.
Conservative Capitalist: Oh yeah? How do you know? We might have LOTS of oil available; we just need to figure out better ways to get it out of the ground and use it more efficiently.
If the PO is right, it's time to buy a nuclear submarine and stock it well. If the CC is right, it's business as usual with a little more government funding for renewables and LOTS more tax credits for oil companies.
The PO's have added to their argument that global instability resulting from dependence on oil has gotten worse and will likely continue to do so (not that that's news to anyone); the CC's have added a nod to conservation, as long as it doesn't rock the oil-driven capitalist juggernaut of global trade. I want to assume that BOTH sides are partly right: We are running out oil, and yes, we will adapt; there will be global instability and resource wars, and yes, they will suck. What else can be safely predicted?
I don't make predictions unless I feel that my information is good, and in this case, beyond knowing how much oil is in the ground and how fast it will run out, it actually isn't too bad; one can at least read the trends. Global conflict over resources (including oil; water is becoming scarce, too) will certainly increase, although how quickly is hard to say. The UN and the West have lost much of their moral authority in a world leaning toward religious fundamentalism. The West has also been much more dependent oil for longer than anyone, but has now been joined by China and India. Ideological confrontations have increased as well among the Great Powers, led by the Megapower, the USA.
Probably the safest prediction isn't too helpful. Global warming, whether caused or exacerbated by human activity or not, will lead to higher seas and a more violent climate. There may be a switch in the currents of the seas that keep temperate zones temperate, so that Europe once again undergoes an ice age. Desertification will certainly spread. But I don't believe in any apocalyptic outcomes (and not just because the apocalypse has always failed to show up; the world has to end SOMETIME). Humanity will adapt to the change in resource supply in fits and starts, just as it has in the past. The vast numbers of humans on the planet, with their various cultural adaptations will assure that at least some of humanity's cultures will survive.
For selfish reasons, I'm betting on good 'ole godless, secular Europe to lead us into this new and troubled age, but I have practical reasons for doing so, too. For while you just can't beat the Europeans for showing you a good time, there's nothing like rationality and science to get you through a tough spot, and the Europeans have always had the market cornered on rationality since WWII ended. The EU may be dull, and to outsiders pointless and silly, but it is nothing if not a rational response to the world's problems. Also, Europe will be less likely to blame disasters on divine intervention and think that they deserve the divine onslaughts. I'm counting on the Dutch to do their part to show the rest of the West how to keep out the rising waters -- they have the experience, after all -- and I'm counting on the English to stay calm, because, well, they almost always do. The Italians and the French and the Germans may bicker and quibble, but I expect they'll come through somehow (with the help of the Scandinavians to kick them in the ass when the glaciers move north far enough -- just like they did during the last global warming episode -- remember the Vikings?).
In the US, I expect more crazed millenial movements and folks wearing tinfoil hats to keep out the deadly rays. Of these, I expect the Mormons will survive, perhaps because they have the institutional will combined with pure nutcase fantasy religions to manage it. (Pace, Utah, but Joe Smith was cracked). Or perhaps just the Mormons will take over the US completely, just to spite the likes of atheist rationalists like myself (::shivers::).
China, as it always does, will carry on its ancient traditions at the expense of anything. Expect more cultural hunkering down and centralization.
Japan will disappear. Sorry; I was born after 1956, so I've always liked them. Good cartoons, too. The Ainu will learn to swim and take over what little remains of the archipelago in the Sea of Japan.
On the other hand, trends sometimes take a left turn; maybe the US, Russia, China, Iran, Europe, Canada, Venezuela, Africa and all the rest of the oil-producing and oil-consuming nations will all learn to get along -- just like the Arabs and Jews -- right!
Most likely to thrive in an oil-free tomorrow are those cultures that just happen to be in the right places for the wrong times. They won't be ready for the future, but the future will be theirs regardless. Based on precedent, I believe primitive peoples in remote areas will be just as successful in the post-Peak era as anyone else, if not more so.
So take heart. Even if Tower of Power were right: "there's only so much oil in the ground"--there's also whole lotta people on the surface! Donna Summer's music may not suvive, but something of humanity will. Even if it's the Mormon Tabernacle Choir.
posted by urbansocrates at 6:30 AM
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